What happens at roll-off
When a fixed term ends the loan does not become a good variable loan. It reverts to whatever revert rate the contract names — usually the lender's standard variable, which sits above the pricing offered to new borrowers and above what the same lender would give the client if anyone asked. Nothing prompts the client that this has happened except a larger repayment. So the first month after roll-off is when a rate-aware client opens a comparison site, and the second is when another broker calls.
That makes the roll-off date the single most predictable attrition event in a trail book. Refinancing driven by rate is diffuse and hard to see coming; refinancing driven by a fixed term ending is on a calendar you already hold. Fixed-rate roll-off, defined.
Why it is worth more than an annual review
An annual review is a courtesy. A roll-off call is a decision point: the client is about to pay more, they know it, and they have not yet chosen who fixes it. Three things line up in the 60–90 days before expiry that never line up at any other time:
- The client is receptive. A message that says "your rate changes on 14 March — here are your options" is not marketing; it is the information they were about to go looking for.
- The current lender will negotiate. Retention pricing exists precisely for this moment. A repricing request at the right time frequently lands within a few basis points of a refinance, with no new application, no valuation and no clawback risk.
- Your commission is on the line, not just theirs. A loan lost inside 24 months of settlement returns part of the upfront to the lender — the clawback schedule says how much — and every lost loan stops the trail that was paying for the relationship. The clawback calculator puts a dollar figure on the first; the trail calculator on the second.
How TrailScope scores it
Fixed-expiry proximity is one of the eight factors in TrailScope's retention score, and at 25% it is the heaviest single weight. The curve is deliberately shaped like the risk: a loan more than 18 months from expiry scores almost nothing on this factor; inside 18 months the score climbs steadily; inside six months it rises to the maximum at the expiry date itself; and a loan that expired in the last three months is still scored near the peak, because the client who has just rolled onto a revert rate is exactly the one about to leave. After that it decays, but never to zero.
Two things happen automatically on top of the score. The dashboard briefing counts fixed roll-offs due in the next 90 days so the number is in front of you every morning, and the automation rules create a task — "review fixed-rate expiry for this client, prepare a roll-off comparison" — for any loan expiring within three months, due a week out, with a cooldown so the same loan does not generate the same task twice. The refinance-risk alerts fire at 90, 60 and 30 days.
A process that holds the loan
- 90 days out — know the number. Pull every loan expiring in the next quarter. If the fixed expiry dates are missing from your data, that is the first fix; the score cannot see what the upload did not carry.
- 60 days out — reprice first. Ask the current lender for retention pricing before you shop the loan. Write the answer down; it is your baseline and, often, your recommendation.
- 45 days out — show the comparison. Revert rate, retained rate, and one or two genuine alternatives with switching costs included. A client who sees the comparison from you does not need to build it elsewhere.
- 30 days out — close it. Refix, reprice or refinance, but decide. A loan that drifts onto the revert rate because nobody chose is the one that leaves.
- After expiry — do not stop. The three months after roll-off score nearly as high as the three before. If a client rolled without a conversation, that conversation is now overdue, not pointless.
What gets in the way
Usually the data. Fixed expiry dates live in the aggregator export, but not every layout carries them, and a broker whose book was assembled from statements alone often has settlement dates and balances with no expiry at all. The statement guides say which columns each platform provides. Where the date is missing, adding it from the loan documents once is worth more than any other single field you could add to the book — it is the field that turns a list of loans into a calendar.
General guidance on managing fixed-rate expiries in a broker's book. Lender retention pricing, revert rates and clawback terms vary by lender and change without notice; confirm against the current policy before advising a client.
Related reading
- Retention Engine — the eight-factor score this guide describes, run across the whole book.
- Clawback calculator — what a loan lost inside its window costs you in upfront.
- Trail commission calculator — the trail that stops when a loan leaves.
- Fixed-rate roll-off and retention score, defined.
FAQ
What happens when a fixed-rate home loan expires in Australia?
The loan reverts to the rate named in the contract, usually the lender's standard variable rate, which typically sits above both new-customer pricing and the retention pricing the same lender would offer if asked. Repayments rise, and the client is prompted to shop.
When should a broker contact a client about fixed-rate expiry?
Around 90 days out to plan, 60 days out to request retention pricing from the current lender, and 45 days out to present a comparison — so a decision is made before the loan rolls. The three months after roll-off are still worth a call if none happened.
Is it better to refix, reprice or refinance at expiry?
It depends on the numbers, but reprice first: the current lender's retention offer often lands within a few basis points of a refinance with no application, valuation or clawback exposure. Refinance when the gap is real after switching costs.
How does fixed-rate expiry affect a broker's commission?
A loan refinanced away stops paying trail, and if it is inside its clawback window the lender reclaims part of the upfront. Holding the loan through expiry protects both; the clawback calculator shows the exposure on any loan.
How does TrailScope use fixed-expiry dates?
Fixed-expiry proximity is the heaviest of the eight factors in the retention score, peaking at the expiry date and staying high for three months after. The dashboard counts roll-offs due in 90 days, automation creates a review task at three months out, and alerts fire at 90, 60 and 30 days.
What if my data has no fixed-expiry dates?
Then the score cannot see the event. Some aggregator exports carry the date and some do not — the statement guides say which. Adding expiry dates from the loan documents once is the highest-value single field a broker can add to a book.